There have been several positive signs for apparel marketers in 2010, but list universes are still lagging.
ParadyszMatera’s Research & Analysis group has started releasing the year-end 2009 MarketTrends reports for consumer marketers. The full reports are available to clients only via MarketRelevance, but I will be providing some key findings to our blog readers over the next few weeks. Below is a look at the consumer apparel sector.
We already know from talking to apparel marketers that there is a good deal of optimism (albeit reserved) for 2010, and there were several positive indicators from the second half of 2009 to back that up. For marketers with a print catalog, mailing activity (i.e. unique apparel campaigns tracked through MarketRelevance) revived in the second half of 2009 after slumping earlier in the year. Also heartening were the launch of several new titles, even if many were imports (NextDirect, Smart Turnout). And finally, there was notable housefile growth from several key marketers like Athleta, Urban Outfitters and Victoria’s Secret.
So this confirms that individual marketers were still able to find some degree of success even in tough times. Collectively, however, buyer file universes for the apparel category show that the sector continues to struggle (see chart below).
In 4Q 2009, the total 12 month active universe for the apparel market was 50 million names, down 3.8 million (7%) from the prior year. Most notably, the combined mailable universe fell below 50 million for the first time in 3Q 2009. Losses came from a variety of sources, although the biggest culprit was JC Penney which removed its 1.8 million name list from the market in 2Q 2009.
The loss of nearly 2 million direct response buyer names is significant for mailers, no question. It makes it harder for other high-affinity marketers to reach qualified prospects. But it’s worth keeping in mind that those buyers haven’t necessarily stopped buying – they just are not reachable in the same way.
So for a more representative depiction of what happened in the apparel category in terms of purchase activity (as opposed to list availability), below is an alternate version of our apparel 12 month buyer file chart removing JC Penney from the trending period.
Without JC Penney, the remaining 150+ apparel files included in our study saw a two-year decline of 2.7 million or -5%. I won’t claim that -5% is a positive development (although given the size of this market, it’s actually pretty good compared to other categories), but down 5% is certainly “stronger” than down 7%. No matter how you slice it, however, there has been a slow downward shift over the past two years.
One final note about the charts above is that universes were relatively stable for 4Q 2009 following the sizable drop in 3Q. This flatness has been seen for 3Q & 4Q in years past and speaks to seasonal activity and the cyclical nature of when fresh names are added to buyer files. Based on the improvements many marketers reported during the 2009 holidays, we expect upward movement in the total apparel buyer universe for 1Q 2010 when those year-end shoppers are integrated into their respective files.
