The publishing subscriber universe has experienced losses similar to other categories, but it remains a giant in terms of overall size and reach.
As the final installment on direct mail list universes for the first half of 2009, the following is a look at active subscriber file counts. I wish I could report that consumer magazines somehow bucked the sagging list trends reported for nonprofits and catalogs, but the fall off for magazine files is pretty much the same as every other category. In fact, it’s a bit more severe if you look only at the past 12 months.
In 2Q 2009, active subscriber files totaled 210 million names. Year-over-year this represents a decline of 9.8 million (4.5%) from 2Q 2008. As 2007 and 2008 were relatively stable periods, the two-year decline (off 9.6 million or 4.4%) is essentially the same as the one-year decline. The most recent numbers offer no respite, as 2Q 2009 was the lowest for the study period charted here.
Note the numbers above represent only active subscriber names available for rental or exchange and do not reflect all circulation sources such as newsstand sales.
Looking at changes in individual magazine file size, the majority (57%) saw losses over the past year. The chart below details the varying degrees of change per unique magazine title. Note that significant growth/decline in the chart below is defined as plus or minus 15%.
Given the considerable struggles that magazines have experienced in recent years — from depleted ad revenues to competing online content – the downbeat findings conveyed in both of the charts above is not a surprise. The news isn’t getting any better either. With the recent closure of titles like Gourmet and Metropolitan Home, year-end subscriber counts will not rebound this calendar year.
So is the sky falling for consumer magazines? No. Consumer frugality remains a lock and there’s still a shakedown on what type of offline content is unique and worth paying for. But there are well over 200 million magazine subscribers out there. Donor and catalog buyer names combined aren’t even half that number.
There is also ample evidence that print magazine titles can still be successful. Examples range from the launch of Food Network Magazine (449 million names) to the 6% growth reported in 2Q 2009 for the largest (and one of the oldest) home service subscriber files on the market, Better Homes & Gardens. When the ad market picks up and publishers figure out how to gain more control of valuable online content, our 2010 reports will hopefully show more stabilization and growth in the consumer publishing area.
