October 2009

Nonprofit Donor Files Decline but Individual Successes Remain

The overall mailable donor list universe continued to see losses in 1H 2009, but the decline may be slowing.

As part two of my update on direct mail list universes (click here for part one), below is a look at nonprofit donor file trends through the first half of 2009.  It’s no surprise that recession-wary consumers who have thought twice about heading out to the local mall have also thought twice about digging into their charitable pockets.  So like nearly all consumer categories (merchandise, apparel, publishing), donor files collectively have continued to trend downwards.

Nonprofit Universe 2Q 2009

In 2Q 2009, active donor files totaled 64 million names.  Year-over-year, this represents a decline of 1.9 million (3%) from 2Q 2008, and a 4.2 million (6.2%) decrease since 2007.  The quarterly trend offers slightly better news, as 2Q 2009 shows a smaller falloff than what was seen over the past few quarters.

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Direct Mail List Prices Continue Slow Steady Climb

Consumer Magazine CPMAs mentioned in my last post, ParadyszMatera’s Research & Analysis group recently released its MarketTrends reports for consumer marketers.  Having highlighted some notable list universe shifts last time out, I thought it would be useful to take a look at trends in list rental cpms (cost per thousand) over the past two years.

There have been other industry reports recently showing falling cpms for direct mail lists, but our tracking shows an overall trend steadily drifting upwards.  Note that ParadyszMatera works only with pricing for list segments that are consistently comparable and impactful.  For marketers, that means cpms for either 12-month or active names.  This sometimes requires adding in a 12 month select so that trending does not fluctuate due to base list price sales strategies.  We also focus almost exclusively on direct response files with verifiable sourcing.

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Catalog Buyer Files Continue to Reflect Tough Economy

Most catalog sectors have seen universe declines over the past two years, but individual successes remain — especially for those with a focus on price and practicality.

WilliamsSonoma-CarolWrightA recent Metrics graph in The New York Times called Shoppers’ Shifting Priorities draws a not-too-pretty picture of retail sales from 2003 through 2009.  Dramatic falloffs abound, and not just for automobiles, but also apparel, home furnishings and department stores.  Folks that work in these beleaguered industries probably won’t be surprised to learn that the “liquor store” category is doing quite nicely.

The NYT study pulled data directly from the U.S. Census Bureau Retail Trade Report, which is a great (and free) resource for anyone looking for sales trends.  For direct marketers, another critical and more impactful measure of sector health can be found in housefile universes, specifically 12-month buyer counts.

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